[9] What if the war continues for years? M
On 24 February 2022, Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine and take over the country. He thought it would be a matter of days or weeks. His plan failed; Ukrainian troops have taken back large parts of their country. Now, the Russian ruler has changed his strategy from blitzkrieg to deterrence and war of attrition, while threatening the world with nuclear weapons. In Ukraine, he has pulled troops back from indefensible positions and is digging in behind the frontline. At the same time, his air force bombs Ukraine's cities, using rockets from Iran. Putin is now planning for a long war.
If the war continues for years, it will have tremendous repercussions for Ukraine, Russia and the West. Ukraine's army can still move forward, inch by inch, in the east. But Russia's air attacks on cities are slowly but surely destroying essential infrastructure and, increasingly, industrial and residential areas, too. Industrial production and external trade are suffering, while Ukraine's large cities become less and less liveable. The countryside is full of internally displaced people, and more refugees will move to western Europe with little chance of returning soon. It is unlikely that Putin will own Ukraine, but it is possible that he will break it.
For Europe, this has serious consequences. Already, the EU and the UK are providing billions in military and humanitarian aid. They are also covering a considerable part of Ukraine's budget. In some EU countries, especially Germany and Poland, millions of Ukrainians have found refuge. By November 2022, some eight million Ukrainians had become refugees, nearly a quarter of the population. The US is the most important provider of military support for Ukraine, but pressure in the US Congress will grow to shift more of the cost to Europe. This will increase tensions here, on top of the crises of high inflation, energy shortages and growing international competition for industrial production sites.
While destroying Ukraine, Putin is also fighting against his own people. Fear is spreading that this is a war without an end. The mobilization of young Russians is taking a huge toll on production, services and trade in Russia. Smaller companies have had to close because their managers have been sent to the front; medium-sized companies have cut their production; and big corporations have seen their profits nationalized by the state to fund the ever more expensive war.
All of this is taking shape assuming that the war won't spread beyond Ukraine's borders. If it does, the costs will be much larger. However, even on its present trajectory, the war will make Europe a poorer and more battered continent than at any time since the end of the Second World War.