Back in 2009, Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd alarmed many Australians with his "big Australia" policy, which aimed to grow the population from 22 million to 36 million by 2050.
When Julia Gillard replaced Rudd in 2010, she stated that she didn't believe in a "big Australia", setting out policies instead to limit population growth and take in fewer immigrants.
Nevertheless, according to current projections, Australia's population may still reach 35.9 million by mid-2050. In September 2022, the current Labor government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the number of permanent migration visas available in 2022-23 had been increased from 160,000 to 195,000. The government also said it would be publishing a comprehensive review of Australia's migration system in 2023.
The reason for this is that public resistance to immigration and population growth has almost disappeared. Most Australians now recognize that the country needs new arrivals and agree that a quick and easy path to permanent residency should be a government priority.
As in many developed nations in the West and Asia, Australia's population is getting older and sicker; not enough babies are being born to replace the people who die every year. More than half of Australians aged between 55 and 75 years have long-term health problems. Migrants, on the other hand, tend to be younger, skilled workers, such as nurses and IT programmers, who want to work hard and build new lives.
Perhaps the biggest challenge for private business and the government is to make Australia appear more attractive for new immigrants than other countries. But the good news is that, in 2023, positive net migration - when more people move in than out of a geographic area - will be at least 300,000, well above previous estimates.
This figure includes Australians who want to return to live here. The upward trend will most likely reverse the recent losses we suffered when we effectively shut our borders for two years during the Covid pandemic.
It's clear that there's little evidence to support policies that limit immigration. On the contrary, the Business Council of Australia has even said that the current proposed limit of 195,000 new arrivals per year should increase as a percentage of our population, instead of being limited to a specific number.
Of course, the government will be careful with its language and messaging, but it does seem ready for a real public discussion on the topic.