Violence associated with water scarcity has greatly increased in recent years. Researchers have developed a global early warning tool to predict potential water conflicts around the world. The Dutch government-funded Water, Peace and Security (WPS) is an early warning system that was presented to the UN Security Council before it was launched formally in December 2019.
The tool combines environmental variables such as rainfall and crop failures with political, economic and social factors to predict the risk of violent water-related conflicts up to a year before they happen. It is the first tool of its kind to consider environmental data, such as precipitation and drought, alongside socio-economic variables.
The tool is available online for the public to use. But it is aimed more specifically at raising awareness among policymakers and people in regions with little water. The tool has already predicted conflicts that are likely to happen in 2020 in Iraq, Iran, Mali, Nigeria, India and Pakistan. Developers claim an 86 per cent success rate in identifying conflict zones that could result in at least ten fatalities. The tool currently focuses on hotspots across Africa, the Middle East and South East Asia.
Historical data “teaches” the model
Growing global demand for water is already creating problems — among communities, between farmers and city dwellers, and between people and governments. Tensions are expected to increase as water scarcity becomes a reality for more people. According to the UN, as many as five billion people could experience water shortages by 2050. Recent statistics from the Pacific Institute think tank in California show that cases of violence linked to water has more than doubled in the past ten years, compared to the decades before.
“The machine-learning model is ‘trained’ to identify patterns using historical data on violent conflict and political, social, economic, demographic and water risk,” said Charles Iceland, senior water expert at the World Resources Institute, part of the WPS partnership. He said: “It looks at over 80 indicators in all, going back up to 20 years. It is then able to use what it has ‘learned’ about the correlations among these variables to predict conflict or no conflict over the next 12 months, given current conditions.”
Scarcity is putting people at risk
Jessica Hartog, a climate change expert with International Alert, a WPS partner, highlighted Iraq and Mali as two countries at risk. Malian farmers, cattle herders and fishermen have been arguing over the reduction of the Niger River’s water levels. Meanwhile, Iraqis — already angry that their basic needs are not being met — protested last year after more than 120,000 people were hospitalized after drinking polluted water.
“Water scarcity has affected both Iraq and Mali, largely due to economic development projects that reduce the water levels and flow in rivers — a situation made worse by climate change and increased demand due to population growth,” Hartog said. “In Mali, we are concerned about the plans of the government and neighbouring countries to build dams, further expand Office du Niger, which oversees water management projects, and related irrigation channels, which will further affect the water availability in the inner Niger Delta. This will affect more than one million farmers, herders and fishers who are fully dependent on the inner Niger Delta.”
In Iraq, Hartog said, a failure to address water concerns and improve water services “directly threatens Iraq’s fragile peace”. In Syria, meanwhile, water scarcity and crop failure have caused many people to move from rural areas to the cities, worsening the civil war. In Iran, people living in Khorramshahr and Abadan protested over polluted drinking water.
Water conflicts are complex
Susanne Schmeier, senior lecturer in water law and diplomacy at IHE Delft, which is also involved in the WPS project, said violent clashes over water resources have occurred between local communities and between provinces within the same countries. “Violence is then exerted by non-state actors, potentially even illicit groups, or representatives of certain sectors,” she said. “Such local conflicts are much more difficult to control and tend to escalate rapidly — a main difference from the transboundary level, where relations between states often limit the escalation of water-related conflicts.”
Schmeier said water problems alone do not create conflict or war, “but they can become ‘threat multipliers’ when combined with other grievances, such as poverty and inequality”. She added: “Once conflicts escalate, they are hard to resolve and can have a negative impact on water security, creating vicious cycles of conflict. This is why timely action is critical.”
© Guardian News & Media 2020